Quick Answer
Australia’s net overseas migration fell to 306,000 in 2024–25, down from 430,000 in 2023–24 — a drop of 124,000 people and the second consecutive annual decline, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The government’s own Budget projections show this trend continuing: 245,000 for 2026–27, stabilising around 225,000 from 2027–28. Despite ongoing public debate about migration being “too high,” the official data shows it has already fallen substantially from its post-pandemic peak and is on a government-planned downward trajectory.
If you’re following Australian migration policy — whether as an applicant, sponsor, or simply someone trying to understand where the system is heading — the net migration numbers are one of the most misunderstood figures in the public debate. Here’s what the official data actually shows, sourced directly from the ABS, and what the declining trend means in practice for skilled and family visa applicants.
Wondering how the tightening migration environment affects your specific visa pathway? Umar Ashraf (MARA #2619222) can assess your options directly — in English, Urdu, Punjabi, and Hindi. Book a free consultation →
The Official Numbers
| Financial Year | Net Overseas Migration |
|---|---|
| 2023–24 | 430,000 |
| 2024–25 (actual) | 306,000 |
| 2026–27 (Budget projection) | 245,000 |
| 2027–28 onward (Budget projection) | ~225,000 |
According to the ABS, the 2024–25 decline was driven by two factors moving in opposite directions: migrant arrivals fell 14% to 568,000 (from 661,000 the year before), while migrant departures rose to 263,000 (from 232,000). ABS head of migration statistics Jenny Dobak noted that working holiday visa holders leaving Australia “more than doubled for two consecutive financial years,” making departures the largest single contributor to the increase.
The ABS frames this as a normalisation rather than a crisis: 2024–25 is described as the closest net migration has come to pre-pandemic levels since the figure peaked in the September quarter of 2023, when post-COVID reopening drove an unusually large temporary migration surge.
Why This Matters for Applicants
A falling net migration figure doesn’t mean every visa pathway is getting easier or harder equally — it reflects the government actively managing the mix of categories, not simply letting fewer people in across the board. In practice, this has shown up as:
- Higher visa fees across student, graduate, and partner visa categories (see our 2026 fee schedule) — a deliberate demand-management lever.
- Tighter state nomination programs, such as Tasmania’s 2026–27 changes, which removed a major offshore pathway entirely.
- Points test reform aimed at prioritising younger, higher-skilled applicants — see our 189 vs 190 vs 491 guide for current thresholds.
- A larger share of departures being working holiday makers leaving Australia after their visa period, rather than a reduction driven purely by fewer people arriving — worth knowing if you’re assessing how “tight” the system actually is for your specific pathway rather than reading the headline number alone.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Australia’s net migration actually falling?
Yes. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, net overseas migration fell to 306,000 in 2024–25, down from 430,000 the year before — the second consecutive annual decline, and the closest to pre-pandemic levels since the post-COVID peak.
What is the government’s migration target for future years?
Federal Budget projections show net overseas migration falling further to 245,000 in 2026–27, before stabilising at around 225,000 from 2027–28 onward.
Why did net migration fall in 2024–25 if arrivals didn’t stop?
The fall reflects both fewer arrivals (down 14% to 568,000) and more departures (up to 263,000), with working holiday visa holders leaving Australia accounting for the largest single increase in departures.
Does falling net migration mean visas are easier to get now?
Not necessarily. The decline reflects deliberate policy settings across specific categories — higher fees, tighter state nomination criteria, and points test reform — rather than a uniform loosening. Some pathways have become harder even as the headline number falls.
Sources
- Australian Bureau of Statistics — “Annual net overseas migration falls for the second year in a row”
- Australian Bureau of Statistics — Overseas Migration, Latest Release
This article is for general information only and reflects ABS data and Federal Budget projections published at the time of writing. Migration figures are revised periodically — always check the ABS website for the latest release. For advice specific to your visa pathway, consult a MARA-registered agent.
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Email: info@magpieconsultants.com.au
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Umar Ashraf
MARA Registered Migration Agent & Education Consultant | MARA #2619222 | Epping, Melbourne VIC
Umar Ashraf is a MARA-registered migration agent specialising in complex cases, visa cancellations, ART tribunal appeals, and employer sponsorship. He provides consultations in English, Urdu, Punjabi and Hindi.
